Much has been made of the “falling” voter turnout. DOWN FROM 2008! I’ve heard screamed. We’re lead to believe that this means Bernie Sanders is failing.
Let me ask 3 questions:
1) Is it really fair to compare 2016 to 2008? In 2008 we were in the 5th year of a $2Trillion dollar disaster of a war. IEDs were blowing apart our boys daily. The economy had just imploded. The entire basis and justification for going into Iraq was proving to be a fraud. Massive layoffs were happening. The urgency for political change was palpable. People were motivated to get to the polls in 2008 by a lot of other things aside from Obama and Clinton. Today we are in a much better place economically and we have wound down two disastrously run wars.
2) Hillary Clinton is once again in the fight of her political life, why is there no expectation she should inspire massive turnout to defend her? She got trounced in NH if she were a very popular inspiring political figure the rush to defend her legacy in NV would have been huge. She squeaked out another win with Sanders closing a 20% gap in the polls in the last 3 weeks. In the fight of her political life why can’t HRC get her alleged legion of supporters out?
3) Is it possible that progressive independents who were already completely fed up with the 2 party system in 2008, felt burned by Obama’s version of change, and are less likely to go all out for Bernie this year? Right from Obama’s appointment of another Goldman Sachs alumni as Treasury Secretary, I knew Obama was not going to deliver the type of aggressive change that I thought the country needed. I think it’s very well possible they will believe again, if Sanders makes it through to the general.
My take on the race right now:
Donald Trump has clearly locked down the 33% of the GOP that full blown, out in the open, racists and xenophobes. Marco Rubio might be the only candidate that could possibly catch him and that would require Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and Ben Carson to suddenly not have egos before Super Tuesday.
The GOP now sees one path to a victory; If Bernie Sanders beats Hillary Clinton by a small margin of pledged delegates (somewhere between 1 & 20), and the Super delegates overturn the will of all those new voters and installs HRC as the victor then the disenfranchisement will result in super low voter turnout. The problem for them is that the DNC will not do this. As much as the DNC prefers Clinton even they know overturning the pledged (voted on) delegates would be a disaster.
Unless…
They telegraphed open support for Sanders. This happened in 2008 as well when they backed Hillary Clinton in several states to try to keep the race competitive. The net effect of this activity, as Rachel Maddow recently point out, is next to nothing.
The GOP knew this 2008, but the hope was if FL and MI got seated and HRC snuck past Obama by a few delegates Obama would have the argument that the GOPs interference was the cause of the HRC victory and a contested/brokered convention would ensue.
So here is whats coming:
1) Some GOP figures will openly support Sanders. This support will have ZERO effect on the elections and caucuses. As Maddow put it :
The most excitable most activist portion of one party’s electorate, in order to do something like this they have to give up something of value; their right to vote in their own parties primary.
…….
These cross over shenanigans always get a bit of media coverage every election cycle but they never amount to much.
2) If by chance HRC losses the election process by coming up short in the pledged delegate count. The GOP will claim “Victory” that they were effective in turning the election. The effect will be to piss off HRC supporters and get them to demand the Super Delegates to turn the nomination over to HRC.
3) At this point the DNC will have to choose between embracing a false argument simply because it works for their preferred establishment candidate, or sticking to the will of the people and respecting the voters.
Again important to note that the GOP does not necessarily want Sanders to win. His favor-ability rating, honest & trustworthy score, and head-to-head polls say he would be harder to beat. In fact he consistently polls strongest against Trump. It seems people prefer an authentic civil servant to an authentic asshole:
What they want is for HRC and the establishment DNC folks to be arrogant enough to steal a legitimate win away from Sanders. This is the only way we lose.
Closing out today’s rant:
Top 3 questions I like to hear a asked on a debate stage:
1) Much has been made of the too big to fail banks and investment banks like Goldman Sachs influence on our politics. Will you pledge, right here today, that your nominee for Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve Chair will be from a strong regulatory background and not an alumni of any too big to fail bank or Goldman Sachs?
2) Give me one policy position that you’d champion in your first 100 days that would benefit organized labor.
3) Political “realities” aside, If we as a nation decide that everyone should get healthcare when they are sick; What is the most efficient way to ensure that; A for profit system that will require people to go out and seek it or a government run medicare for all?