Setting up a rally is comparatively easy. You get a public space and PA system you work out a security plan and you’re good to go. Planning a closed door $1000/plate dinner with a headliner like Bon Jovi, is like planning a wedding. It takes months. Tickets have to be sold (Very, very, expensive tickets), schedules need to be coordinated, and your hedge fund manager pals aren’t going to accept a hot tray from Panera Bread. Chef’s, menus, china all need to be curated. Anyone who’s planned a wedding knows that that stuff just isn’t thrown together. What’s clear from the scheduling of the Franklin Square Hedge Fund event for Clinton is that they expected no one to be watching at this point.
Two three months ago they were still 20-30 points up on Sanders in Iowa. Sanders was supposed to have disappeared by now ( remember he had a 25% “ceiling” he would hit. ) Clinton should have been able to slip off to Philly with little fanfare as the MSM obsessed over Trump Vs Cruz. What’s clear now is that Sanders will likely have the pledged delegate lead (and regardless of what Clinton supporters say super delegates are not going to deny the popular will of the voters.) going into SC. If we are to believe conventional wisdom; Clinton can declare herself the most electable by winning a lion share of the African American vote. As the Meme goes “Bernie Sanders white liberalism doesn’t translate to the African American community, and thus ends the improbably run of the man that most people agree with, but for some reason could never win. As conventional wisdom goes; Clinton has built in advantages with the African American community because… well I’m still trying to figure that out. Three strikes, the rise of mass incarceration, & “third way” policies that weakened safety nets,& the scars of an election in 2008 where the Clinton camp was floating the notion of Obama as her VP when he was leading the pledged delegate count. (nice try kid, party insiders AKA Super Delegates will decide this, you’re un-electable so‘back of the bus’ and make room for the ‘hard working’ contingent)
I’m not a big fan of conventional wisdom.
Nothing in the cross tabs shows me the African American community in SC still does not know Bernie Sanders more than this :
On the white voter side 97% said that Sanders would do what’s best for voters as opposed to big donors. Only 37% of white voters felt Clinton would side with voters over her big money donors. (ouch!) On the African American side 32% of the respondents said they thought Sanders would do what his “big donors” want. So the question is; what big donors are we talking about? He has no Super PAC that would allow anyone to make more than the maximum $2700 donation. Quick! name a big money donor for Sanders….. Exactly. Nothing in this poll tells me the AA community in SC is not really engaged yet than this cross tab. There’s just no way you can say Bernie “will do the bidding of his big money donors” and claim to be familiar with the candidate, the two are mutually exclusive. At a minimum 32% of the AA community still does not know Bernie Sanders. Of the remaining 68% I’d bet ½ of those felt he could never win. Iowa changed that “can’t win” narrative and NH will change it even more (NV isn’t looking so bad either.)
Why is this? I believe there’s a couple of factors.
The Last Song is Still Playing.
You know when you’re at a wedding and the band is playing the final song? The last thing you want to see is a crew coming in to get ready for the next event coming in. Obama is still president. When you’ve waited as long as the AA community for a president that you knew would finally represent you, the last thing you want to think about is his replacement before you absolutely have to. I think it’s fair to say there is a huge (and justifiable ) emotional bond with this president and that there will be many a tear shed when next president is sworn in with Obama looking on.
Media Coverage.
Up until about a month ago the only place you’d find Bernie Sanders is 3 shows on the evening schedule of MSNBC (Maddow, O’Donnel, Hayes) and here on the internet. If you are poor you’re far less likely to have a cable package with MSNBC, or to have a smart phone to be able to surf political blogs, or to have a good internet connection. Poor people are disproportionately denied access to information. African Americans are disproportionately poor. The end result is more exposure to “free” broadcast media channels that are largely MSM. You’re also less likely to find the time to consume much media at all if you’re working 60 hour weeks at low paying jobs, a situation POC disproportionately find themselves in. Obama faced the same challenges reaching AA voters in SC in 2008. In fact they really did not start to break for him until late January 2008. What it took was breaking the “he can’t win” myth in the MSM coverage.
Yes - Stereotypes
Bernie Sanders is an old white guy. I worked in 5 states for Obama and found myself talking to a ton of old white people trying to convince them that they (despite years of cultural programming telling them “don’t trust those black people”) should forget the stereotypes they’ve been programmed with and judge Obama by his character and his policies. On the flip side; I’ve had real talk with AA friends in Brooklyn who initially (I’ve since turned them) said “Homie looks like my landlord”. In an image obsessed society Bernie’s appearance does hurt him.
But here is the thing; There is no other demographic in the Democratic party that care’s more about politics and understands it’s potential to impact their lives. They will turnout and they will take notice, and they will at the end of the day look past outward appearances to examine the history of the candidates, their character, their judgement, and their message. It’s my belief that they’ll break for the candidate who is saying this year “YES WE CAN!”
But this is all just speculation.
What is clear is this; without this insurgency, Clinton would have won Iowa by a huge margin last night, be on track to win NH, and no one would be talking about the importance of SC today. I choose to support Sanders because I believe my voice matters in a campaign without super-donors and corporations that lavish my candidate with millions of dollars in “speaking fees”. Surround by all that influence my effort to knock on a few doors, and make some phone calls, doesn’t add up to much. Regardless of what people end up doing in SC their voice has become far more relevant and valuable because of this primary process, and the revolutionaries smashing what was “inevitable”.
I wrote this back in 2008 : ( Worth a read for Obama Supporters to refresh what his campaign was about in 2008)
The Choice is simple..
EITHER
You believe that our political system is static and unchangeable; that our media, and the corporations that own them, control the debate and always will; that the American people will always be duped by the smears of the 527 [PAC]s and FOX news.
OR....
You believe that we, the people, control our politics. That in fact, we can change the game entirely.
It is a simple choice of politics as usual, or a whole new game.
This was the revolution that Obama started. The reason I once again believed “we the people” could reclaim power. Without Obama 2008 there would be no Sanders 2016. Let us not take a step backward. Preserving the Obama legacy starts with supporting the type of grassroots campaign that launched his presidency, and not returning to big money PAC driven politics.